Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | TNST +340 BRY -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +12 | 182 | Lost |
| Massey | BRY -9.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -6.8 (-5.2) | 154.2 (+27.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -7.5 (-4.5) | 158.8 (+23.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -7.1 (-4.9) | 158.4 (+23.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -6.9 (-5.1) | 154.8 (+27.2) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-2 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#302) | 1.8 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#335) | 0.20 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.94 (#341) | -0.02 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#344) | 0.516 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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