Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UVU -1200 WGA +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -20.1 (-17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -13.2 (-10.2) | 140.3 (+10.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -13.3 (-10.3) | 138.1 (+12.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -15.3 (-12.3) | 141.3 (+9.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -15.3 (-12.3) | 139.9 (+11.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVU | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-0 | 4-8 |
| Away | 10-7 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#51) | -11.1 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#35) | -2.32 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#49) | -3.89 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.679 (#14) | 0.373 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVU | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 35.4% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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