Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -230 UTA +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +13 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -10.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -7.5 (+5.5) | 150.2 (-5.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -6.8 (+6.2) | 146.8 (-1.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -9.6 (+3.4) | 149.0 (-4.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -7.4 (+5.6) | 149.7 (-4.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#69) | -2.9 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#85) | -1.57 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#43) | -2.00 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#112) | 0.492 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 42.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 39.2% |
Game Analysis
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