Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -360 RAD +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +13 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -11.5 (-24.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (-36.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -5.2 (-18.2) | 152.4 (-27.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -6.2 (-19.2) | 148.1 (-23.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -5.1 (-18.1) | 150.1 (-25.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -5.3 (-18.3) | 151.2 (-26.2) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#71) | -4.1 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#98) | 1.53 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#118) | 2.70 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#73) | 0.542 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.