Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -2000 MAN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -11.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -8.2 (+0.8) | 131.8 (+7.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -12.3 (-3.3) | 131.1 (+7.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -7.6 (+1.4) | 129.6 (+9.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -8.5 (+0.5) | 131.3 (+7.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#195) | -7.1 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#166) | -0.26 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#154) | -1.14 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#160) | 0.461 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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