Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -135 LMU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +14 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -10.4 (-24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -5.9 (-19.9) | 144.0 (-4.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -7.8 (-21.8) | 141.0 (-1.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -5.5 (-19.5) | 144.3 (-4.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -6.2 (-20.2) | 142.7 (-2.7) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 9-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#132) | -8.0 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#69) | -2.73 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#91) | -4.20 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#97) | 0.357 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 35.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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