Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NAU -170 EMU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -0.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -0.1 (-4.1) | 133.3 (+6.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -1.0 (-5.0) | 131.3 (+8.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -0.8 (-4.8) | 131.8 (+8.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -0.0 (-4.0) | 133.8 (+6.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#237) | -4.2 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#70) | 0.48 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#96) | -0.21 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#53) | 0.446 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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