Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -800 EWU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +16 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -10.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-40.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -10.6 (+5.4) | 149.4 (-31.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -6.2 (+9.8) | 143.8 (-25.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -9.5 (+6.5) | 149.0 (-31.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -11.5 (+4.5) | 151.2 (-33.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#110) | -0.9 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#212) | -0.78 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#238) | 0.38 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#291) | 0.449 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 59.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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