Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA -8000 SUU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +45 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -19.1 (+25.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -16.1 (+28.9) | 138.3 (-7.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -18.7 (+26.3) | 136.6 (-5.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -18.4 (+26.6) | 138.4 (-7.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -16.9 (+28.1) | 139.0 (-8.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 4-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#20) | 2.1 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#92) | 1.16 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#82) | 1.56 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#114) | 0.531 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.9% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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