Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +160 UNCG -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -13.8 (+18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -9.1 (+14.1) | 132.3 (+0.7) | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -11.0 (+16.0) | 132.2 (+0.8) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -7.6 (+12.6) | 131.1 (+1.9) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -8.6 (+13.6) | 132.2 (+0.8) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#315) | 5.3 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#332) | -0.57 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.39 (#327) | -0.86 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#330) | 0.512 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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