Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | DAY +270 CONN -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +18 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -7.1 (+25.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -3.7 (+21.7) | 147.6 (+4.4) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.8 (+21.8) | 143.8 (+8.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -2.7 (+20.7) | 147.7 (+4.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -2.8 (+20.8) | 148.8 (+3.2) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#60) | 15.5 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#94) | -0.00 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#78) | 0.68 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#82) | 0.454 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 60.9% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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