Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | OSU +200 UVA -245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -3.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -2.9 (-1.1) | 145.1 (-9.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -4.2 (+0.2) | 145.6 (-9.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -4.6 (+0.6) | 145.4 (-9.4) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -3.7 (-0.3) | 145.6 (-9.6) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 30-6 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#41) | 17.8 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#43) | 3.32 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#41) | 4.15 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#60) | 0.618 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.