Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BC +150 CAL -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +11 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -4.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -3.2 (-7.8) | 135.2 (+25.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -3.2 (-7.8) | 136.7 (+24.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -3.8 (-7.2) | 132.5 (+28.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -3.6 (-7.4) | 133.1 (+27.9) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2025 | CAL 82 – 71 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 17-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#138) | 9.2 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#207) | 1.95 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#179) | 2.37 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#213) | 0.571 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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