Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | RUTG +475 ALA -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RUTG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +5 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -15.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -9.8 (+4.8) | 162.2 (+22.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.4 (+6.4) | 166.3 (+18.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -10.1 (+5.1) | 163.7 (+21.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -9.6 (+4.6) | 163.1 (+21.9) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RUTG | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#117) | 18.5 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#74) | 2.68 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#88) | 4.16 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#92) | 0.737 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RUTG | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 43.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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