Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | IU -200 LOU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +28 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -0.8 (-28.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -0.3 (-28.3) | 145.6 (+4.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -0.7 (-27.3) | 142.5 (+7.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -0.0 (-28.0) | 144.0 (+6.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -1.4 (-26.6) | 145.2 (+4.8) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | LOU 87 – 78 IU |
| Nov 20, 2023 | IU 74 – 66 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#38) | 10.4 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#61) | 1.04 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#86) | 2.17 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#31) | 0.558 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.1% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 25.9% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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