Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -165 CREI +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -6.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -3.3 (+0.7) | 138.8 (+11.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -4.8 (-0.8) | 141.7 (+8.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -5.0 (-1.0) | 139.7 (+10.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -4.2 (-0.2) | 138.8 (+11.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#42) | 4.0 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#100) | -0.02 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#81) | 0.31 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#154) | 0.455 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 44.7 | 43.3 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 45.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 12.2% |
Game Analysis
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