Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -120 XAV +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +25 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -3.4 (+21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -1.8 (+23.2) | 144.3 (-13.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -0.6 (+24.4) | 141.7 (-10.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -0.0 (+25.0) | 143.4 (-12.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -1.8 (+23.2) | 144.4 (-13.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#49) | 6.6 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#69) | 2.64 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#67) | 3.98 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#38) | 0.592 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 2.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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