Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | DAV +900 ARIZ -1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +33 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -3.6 (-29.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -2.1 (-30.9) | 154.2 (+20.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -4.3 (-28.7) | 150.6 (+24.4) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -1.5 (-31.5) | 153.6 (+21.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -1.0 (-32.0) | 154.7 (+20.3) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#81) | 9.9 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#73) | -1.40 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#79) | -1.94 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#61) | 0.458 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 17.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 42.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 79.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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