Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | LT -380 EKU +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | LT -2.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -2.8 (+6.2) | 142.7 (+4.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -3.5 (+5.5) | 144.3 (+2.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -3.0 (+6.0) | 143.8 (+3.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -2.9 (+6.1) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#93) | 3.2 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#55) | -0.38 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#68) | -0.34 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#183) | 0.485 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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