Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UND -105 SELA -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +16 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SELA -5.1 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SELA -2.6 (-13.4) | 136.9 (-0.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SELA -1.5 (-14.5) | 137.7 (-1.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SELA -2.4 (-13.6) | 138.2 (-2.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SELA -2.7 (-13.3) | 137.6 (-1.6) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#271) | -0.7 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#203) | -0.79 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#236) | -1.44 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#191) | 0.468 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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