Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MRMK -105 UTSA -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -1.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -0.1 (-1.9) | 131.4 (+18.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -0.8 (-1.2) | 131.7 (+18.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -1.1 (-0.9) | 130.4 (+19.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -0.3 (-1.7) | 130.4 (+19.6) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#313) | -7.2 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#287) | -2.14 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#262) | -3.24 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#250) | 0.398 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 22.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 61.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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