Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | GAST +175 TLSA -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -2.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.2 (+1.8) | 144.0 (+1.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -0.6 (+2.4) | 148.2 (-3.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -1.2 (+1.8) | 149.0 (-4.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -1.4 (+1.6) | 146.4 (-1.4) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-9 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#241) | -6.6 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#229) | -0.70 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#227) | -1.31 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#266) | 0.432 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.