Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | BCU +135 GWEB -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +15 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | GWEB -7.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -4.4 (-10.6) | 139.1 (+3.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -6.4 (-8.6) | 140.1 (+2.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -4.3 (-10.7) | 139.9 (+3.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -4.1 (-10.9) | 139.5 (+3.5) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-2 | 5-6 |
| Away | 7-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#209) | 5.1 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#202) | 1.44 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#210) | 1.59 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#174) | 0.595 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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