Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | APP +230 SHSU -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SHSU -10.8 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -5.4 (+8.4) | 144.3 (-15.3) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -6.6 (+9.6) | 140.1 (-11.1) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -6.9 (+9.9) | 142.5 (-13.5) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -6.1 (+9.1) | 147.1 (-18.1) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#304) | 3.2 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#222) | 0.96 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#230) | 1.41 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#158) | 0.504 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 44.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 57.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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