Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -520 NIU +385 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +5 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -12.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -8.9 (-3.9) | 138.3 (+30.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -8.3 (-3.3) | 139.9 (+29.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -9.6 (-4.6) | 139.0 (+30.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -10.0 (-5.0) | 138.1 (+30.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-10 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#254) | -11.5 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#261) | -1.27 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#270) | -1.70 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#301) | 0.417 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 19.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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