Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Atlantic Coast Conference · Maples Pavilion · February 26, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread STAN -8.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money STAN -425 / PITT +330
Model Predictions
Spread Total STAN win
Actual STAN +8 142 Won
Massey STAN -6.3 (+1.7) — —
Massey Totals — 140.9 (+1.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 85% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 87% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ STAN -6.1 (+1.9) 138.6 (+3.4) 76% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML STAN -6.7 (+1.3) 136.2 (+5.8) 76% ✓
Baseline ML STAN -7.0 (+1.0) 136.2 (+5.8) 78% ✓
Baseline Plus ML STAN -6.8 (+1.2) 136.9 (+5.1) 77% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 10, 2026 PITT 64 – 63 STAN
Jan 4, 2025 PITT 83 – 68 STAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STAN PITT
Overall 20-13 13-20
Conference 9-9 5-13
Home 12-6 8-10
Away 5-5 3-8
Neutral 3-2 2-2
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.0 70.5
Avg Pts Against 73.0 71.8
Massey 8.6 (#74) 5.2 (#102)
Bradley-Terry 1.55 (#65) 0.31 (#140)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.79 (#72) 0.49 (#129)
RPI 0.560 (#67) 0.495 (#191)
Shooting & Four Factors STAN PITT
FG% 42.6% 43.4%
3PT% 34.2% 33.5%
REB / G 34.4 34.7
OREB / G 11.6 12.0
AST / TO 1.08 1.17
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.2% 50.6%
TOV% 16.0% 17.3%
ORB% 32.3% 33.8%
FT Rate 26.9% 20.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.0% 52.9%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 16.3%
DRB% 71.2% 71.5%
Opp FT Rate 30.9% 24.6%

Game Analysis

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