Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | OU -160 PROV +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +2 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | OU -4.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (+30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -1.8 (+0.2) | 130.8 (+25.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -2.5 (-0.5) | 135.6 (+20.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -2.0 (-0.0) | 129.1 (+26.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -1.6 (+0.4) | 130.1 (+25.9) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2023 | OU 72 – 51 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#58) | 4.2 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#114) | 1.58 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#119) | 2.32 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#215) | 0.564 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 38.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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