Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | BEL +115 TULN -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +23 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -2.6 (+20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -1.3 (+21.7) | 148.5 (+6.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -2.8 (+20.2) | 147.6 (+7.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -1.0 (+22.0) | 148.7 (+6.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -1.9 (+21.1) | 149.8 (+5.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#132) | -0.2 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#69) | -1.07 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#91) | -1.40 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#97) | 0.436 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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