Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | WIU +100 UIW -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +11 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | UIW -7.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -4.4 (-6.6) | 137.7 (+23.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -2.8 (-8.2) | 135.4 (+25.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -3.8 (-7.2) | 134.6 (+26.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -4.4 (-6.6) | 138.9 (+22.1) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#337) | -3.6 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#272) | -0.87 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#280) | -1.42 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.359 (#343) | 0.396 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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