Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -125 UTEP +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +6 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -1.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -0.4 (-5.6) | 132.6 (-10.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -0.7 (-6.7) | 132.6 (-10.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.4 (-6.4) | 133.7 (-11.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -0.1 (-6.1) | 132.6 (-10.6) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#148) | -0.3 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#306) | -0.24 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#301) | -1.49 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#294) | 0.486 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 26.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 30.9% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 43.8% |
Game Analysis
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