Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +160 NAU -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -0.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -1.0 (-2.0) | 134.6 (+10.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -1.0 (-2.0) | 135.9 (+9.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -0.5 (-2.5) | 132.6 (+12.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -0.0 (-3.0) | 134.5 (+10.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#337) | -4.9 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#334) | 0.41 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#317) | 0.02 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#299) | 0.526 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.1% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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