Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | IU +400 GONZ -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +16 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -16.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -10.1 (-5.9) | 148.8 (+13.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -10.5 (-5.5) | 149.0 (+13.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -11.7 (-4.3) | 151.1 (+10.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -10.5 (-5.5) | 150.1 (+11.9) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#83) | 22.8 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#128) | 2.81 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#130) | 4.55 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#76) | 0.680 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 2.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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