Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MISS +115 BYU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +11 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -4.7 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -1.6 (+12.6) | 145.2 (+35.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -2.3 (+13.3) | 142.5 (+38.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -0.0 (+11.0) | 147.4 (+33.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -1.5 (+12.5) | 146.5 (+34.5) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#61) | 13.0 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#53) | 1.77 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#70) | 1.97 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#65) | 0.524 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 43.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 2.05 | 2.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 60.3% |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 40.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 83.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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