Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | OU +270 ARIZ -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +5 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -1.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -0.8 (+5.8) | 147.8 (+11.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -0.6 (+5.6) | 149.3 (+9.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -0.5 (+4.5) | 151.4 (+7.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -0.6 (+4.4) | 151.4 (+7.6) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#58) | 9.9 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#39) | -1.40 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#48) | -1.94 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#99) | 0.458 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 17.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 42.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 79.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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