Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV +340 MSST -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +22 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -12.8 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -7.7 (-14.3) | 148.0 (-10.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -9.0 (-13.0) | 148.3 (-10.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -9.0 (-13.0) | 149.5 (-11.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -7.7 (-14.3) | 150.1 (-12.1) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#109) | 16.7 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#87) | 3.43 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#87) | 5.32 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#101) | 0.648 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 2.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 11.8% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 38.8% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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