Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -180 WVU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -1.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -0.7 (+8.3) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -0.9 (+8.1) | 150.1 (-1.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -0.7 (+8.3) | 145.9 (+3.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -1.4 (+7.6) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | WVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 9-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 64.8 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#22) | 12.8 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#62) | 3.09 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#56) | 5.38 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#44) | 0.676 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | WVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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