Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | SBU +230 USU -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +5 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -6.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.6 (-1.4) | 146.4 (-7.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -5.0 (+0.0) | 144.8 (-5.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -3.4 (-1.6) | 147.3 (-8.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -3.0 (-2.0) | 146.4 (-7.4) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#63) | 14.2 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#32) | 3.32 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.77 (#35) | 5.97 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#63) | 0.662 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 15.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 45.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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