Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UCI -500 KENN +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +17 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -10.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -7.1 (+9.9) | 146.7 (-11.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -9.7 (+7.3) | 149.9 (-14.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -9.1 (+7.9) | 148.4 (-13.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -6.8 (+10.2) | 147.4 (-12.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 14-3 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#40) | 1.3 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#15) | 0.78 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.79 (#18) | 0.96 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#49) | 0.613 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 38.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 83.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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