Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -155 UNI +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +20 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -1.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -2.1 (+17.9) | 131.9 (-15.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -5.1 (+14.9) | 126.2 (-10.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -3.3 (+16.7) | 126.7 (-10.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -1.5 (+18.5) | 133.2 (-17.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2023 | UNT 83 – 77 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#99) | 3.2 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#49) | 0.56 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#62) | 1.09 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#24) | 0.589 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 18.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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