Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | USC +180 SMC -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +35 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -3.3 (-31.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-45.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -3.5 (-31.5) | 145.8 (-38.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.0 (-31.0) | 139.5 (-32.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -4.9 (-30.1) | 145.5 (-38.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -3.0 (-32.0) | 147.5 (-40.5) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-1 |
| Home | 12-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 61.8 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#114) | 6.7 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#111) | 3.17 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#98) | 4.61 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#140) | 0.745 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 16.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.92 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 46.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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