Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -195 ASU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -2.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -2.1 (-5.1) | 152.8 (+14.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -2.1 (-5.1) | 155.3 (+11.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -2.0 (-5.0) | 155.1 (+11.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -1.8 (-4.8) | 152.6 (+14.4) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#37) | 9.4 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#47) | 2.38 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#50) | 3.42 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#76) | 0.636 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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