Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -3500 DAV +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +25 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -20.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -13.9 (+11.1) | 156.6 (-1.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -15.3 (+9.7) | 154.8 (+0.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -15.9 (+9.1) | 156.1 (-1.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -14.7 (+10.3) | 157.0 (-2.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 23.3 (#4) | 2.4 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#23) | 0.61 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.28 (#24) | 0.92 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#13) | 0.544 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.05 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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