Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | IU -195 PROV +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +16 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | IU -1.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -0.9 (+15.1) | 134.0 (+28.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.2 (+16.2) | 137.5 (+24.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -0.7 (+15.3) | 134.9 (+27.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -0.5 (+15.5) | 136.5 (+25.5) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2020 | IU 79 – 58 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#80) | 4.9 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#121) | 1.01 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#110) | 1.67 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#93) | 0.535 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 41.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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