Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ORST +150 SF -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +1 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SF -4.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -2.4 (+3.4) | 142.9 (+12.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -3.0 (+4.0) | 143.6 (+11.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -2.2 (+3.2) | 140.6 (+14.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -2.1 (+3.1) | 143.3 (+11.7) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | ORST 90 – 63 SF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | ORST 70 – 62 SF |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SF 74 – 72 ORST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SF 81 – 70 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#179) | 3.1 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#137) | 0.52 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#142) | 0.80 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#148) | 0.508 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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