Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | RGV -258 NICH +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +18 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -6.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -5.3 (+12.7) | 136.8 (+17.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -3.6 (+14.4) | 137.6 (+16.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -5.3 (+12.7) | 136.8 (+17.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -5.3 (+12.7) | 135.5 (+18.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | RGV 92 – 72 NICH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NICH 71 – 69 RGV |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NICH 93 – 84 RGV |
| Jan 28, 2025 | NICH 82 – 75 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-8 | 12-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#132) | -4.5 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#172) | -0.75 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#155) | -1.08 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#155) | 0.481 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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