Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | APP -110 COLG -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +22 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -2.4 (+24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -1.1 (+23.1) | 125.8 (-3.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -0.7 (+22.7) | 131.0 (-9.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -1.7 (+23.7) | 128.2 (-6.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -1.2 (+23.2) | 128.5 (-6.5) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#264) | -2.9 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#155) | -0.61 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#198) | -0.90 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#112) | 0.473 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 9.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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