Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE -150 MINN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +6 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -2.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 113.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -0.7 (+6.7) | 122.5 (-14.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -0.5 (+6.5) | 127.9 (-19.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -0.9 (+6.9) | 127.4 (-19.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -1.5 (+7.5) | 124.7 (-16.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-9 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#200) | 0.6 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#54) | 0.55 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#73) | 0.96 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#110) | 0.526 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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