Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | WEB -150 BGSU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | WEB -0.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -0.6 (+2.4) | 142.9 (+0.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -0.6 (+2.4) | 141.7 (+1.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -1.0 (+2.0) | 144.3 (-1.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -1.2 (+1.8) | 145.8 (-2.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-22 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#272) | -6.8 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#293) | -2.99 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#268) | -4.49 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#199) | 0.287 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 27.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.7% | 35.7% |
Game Analysis
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