Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | CSU +170 TCU -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -7.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -4.2 (+8.2) | 137.2 (+10.8) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -3.3 (+7.3) | 136.5 (+11.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -4.3 (+8.3) | 139.4 (+8.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -4.2 (+8.2) | 137.9 (+10.1) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#216) | 4.4 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#234) | 0.01 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#246) | -0.43 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#270) | 0.489 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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