Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | GW -10000 VMI +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | GW -12.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -11.5 (+1.5) | 145.3 (-4.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -12.5 (+0.5) | 146.8 (-5.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -12.4 (+0.6) | 147.0 (-6.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -12.0 (+1.0) | 145.6 (-4.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#146) | -6.0 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#120) | -0.92 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#114) | -1.26 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#134) | 0.451 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 40.3% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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